TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
46-36 | Road
11
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
35-46 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cedric Mullins
#31 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 5.06 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.06
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
63%
ORIOLES
37%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.59
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
6.83
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5)
+9.6% more
Baltimore: 20.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.6
Home Runs (L5)
+8.7% more
Baltimore: 2.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.8
Walks (L5)
+45.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.1
vs
Baltimore: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.6
11
BAL Score
6.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.2 / 11.1
7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.9
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.4 / 18.6
13.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.1
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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