TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
46-35 | Road
8
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
34-46 | Home
22
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cedric Mullins
#31 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Coby Mayo
#16 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Coby Mayo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
64%
ORIOLES
36%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
14.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
6.79
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5.05
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+53.0% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2
vs
Baltimore: 4.8
Total Bases (L5)
+49.2% more
Tampa Bay: 16.9
vs
Baltimore: 8.6
Home Runs (L5)
+20.6% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3
vs
Baltimore: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.0% more
Tampa Bay: 8.9
vs
Baltimore: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
6.8
8
BAL Score
5.1
22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
4.8 / 10.2
21.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.9
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
8.6 / 16.9
44.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.2
1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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