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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

45-35  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jun 26 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-42  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Chandler Simpson
STARTING PITCHER

Chandler Simpson

#14 | Left Field
@
Jac Caglianone
STARTING PITCHER

Jac Caglianone

#14 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chandler Simpson None-None -- -- -- --
Jac Caglianone None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
59%
📊
ROYALS
41%
RAYS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

61.3%

Royals Cover

38.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.7%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.06
TAMPA BAY
3.91
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728 ▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +54.0% more
Tampa Bay: 10.7 vs Kansas City: 4.9
Total Bases (L5) +45.5% more
Tampa Bay: 14.8 vs Kansas City: 8.1
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Walks (L5) +28.2% more
Tampa Bay: 2.8 vs Kansas City: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.1 4
KC Score 3.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.9 / 10.7 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.9 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 8.1 / 14.8 6.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
58% 95-68
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 90-64-7
47% 73-81-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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