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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

33-47  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Jun 25 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-36  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Adrian Morejon None-None 2.04 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.04
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
NATIONALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Diego)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

34.8%

Padres Cover

65.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.32
WASHINGTON
4.88
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.744
OPS
▲ .925
210 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +28.8% more
San Diego: 8.6 vs Washington: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +18.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +14.0%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.3 0
SD Score 4.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.9 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.7 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 16.1 6.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.9 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
WSH
SD
WSH
ML
51% 85-83
57% 92-69
51% 85-82
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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