TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
42-36 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
39-38 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 5.06 | -- | -- | -- |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.06
ERA
Ldr 3.81
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.88
TORONTO
Cleveland
4.03
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.692
OPS
▲
.696
152
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+89.0% more
Cleveland: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 0.8
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+6.6% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.8% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.9
4
CLE Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.6
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.9
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 15.2
15.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.6 / 5.2
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
54%
87-74
46%
74-87
49%
80-82
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
80-76-5
43%
69-90-2
45%
70-85-5
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