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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

44-35  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jun 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-41  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.64 -- 0.2 --
Steven Cruz None-None 1.80 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.64 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
ROYALS
100%
RAYS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

59.1%

Royals Cover

40.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.1%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.02
TAMPA BAY
4.1
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728 ▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +44.3% more
Tampa Bay: 10.6 vs Kansas City: 5.9
Home Runs (L5) +42.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +39.6% more
Tampa Bay: 16.8 vs Kansas City: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season) +6.2% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.0 3
KC Score 4.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 10.6 3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.3 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 16.8 4.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
58% 95-68
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 90-64-7
47% 73-81-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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