TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
38-41 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
34-44 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 3.22 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.22 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
RANGERS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.5%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.34
TEXAS
Baltimore
5.26
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
BAL @ TEX
10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026
TEX @ BAL
3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026
TEX @ BAL
8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.713
▲
OPS
.711
183
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+87.0% more
Baltimore: 0.9
vs
Texas: 0.0
Total Bases (L5)
+55.0% more
Baltimore: 12.0
vs
Texas: 7.8
Home Runs (L5)
+50.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Texas: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+41.1% more
Baltimore: 8.0
vs
Texas: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.3
6
BAL Score
5.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 5.7
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.3
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 7.8
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.5
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TEX
BAL
TEX
ML
53%
83-73
53%
86-76
57%
90-69
57%
91-70
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
92-70
57%
90-68-1
61%
98-63
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
78-70-14
51%
78-75-6
55%
81-66-14
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