TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
43-35 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
38-40 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.45
ERA
Ldr 2.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
ROYALS
0%
RAYS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.5
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
4.55
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
TB @ KC
5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026
TB @ KC
4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026
TB @ KC
10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026
KC @ TB
2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026
KC @ TB
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.718
169
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+34.0% more
Tampa Bay: 10.4
vs
Kansas City: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+28.9% more
Tampa Bay: 17.1
vs
Kansas City: 12.2
Home Runs (L5)
+23.5% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5
vs
Kansas City: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.0% more
Tampa Bay: 9.5
vs
Kansas City: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.5
5
KC Score
4.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 10.4
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.5
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 17.1
6.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.5
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
55%
89-72
58%
95-68
56%
90-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
TTL
58%
90-64-7
47%
73-81-9
54%
83-70-7
51%
78-75-10
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