CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
46-32 | Road
7
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
43-36 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.12 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Michael McGreevy | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 4.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.12 Ldr
ERA
4.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
CUBS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.04
CHICAGO
St. Louis
4.4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.378
.374
OPS
▲
.691
0
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.5% more
St. Louis: 8.0
vs
Chicago: 5.8
OPS (Season)
+31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.0
7
STL Score
4.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.1
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 5.8
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 16.0
21.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53%
85-74
58%
93-68
52%
84-77
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
97-63-1
53%
85-76
47%
75-85-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
81-74-6
50%
76-75-10
46%
72-83-6
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