WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
33-46 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
42-36 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.60
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
PADRES
0%
NATIONALS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.25
WASHINGTON
San Diego
4.89
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
WSH @ SD
2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
WSH @ SD
4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
WSH @ SD
2 - 3
May 31, 2026
SD @ WSH
2 - 4
May 30, 2026
SD @ WSH
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.744
OPS
▲
.925
210
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Washington: 5.1
OPS (Season)
+18.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+14.0%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
San Diego: 8.5
vs
Washington: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.3
3
SD Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 11.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.6
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 19.6
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
WSH
SD
WSH
ML
51%
85-83
57%
92-69
51%
85-82
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
93-68
55%
92-75
57%
91-70
TTL
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-78-6
54%
86-74-6
42%
65-90-6
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