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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

32-46  |  Road

10
FINAL
Mon, Jun 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

42-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Yuki Matsui None-None 3.73 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.73
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
NATIONALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (San Diego)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

29.2%

Padres Cover

70.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.3%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.64
WASHINGTON
4.83
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.744
OPS
▲ .925
210 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.0% more
San Diego: 3.2 vs Washington: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season) +18.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +14.0%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.6 10
SD Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.6 9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 9.9 14.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 17.9 18.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
WSH
SD
WSH
ML
51% 85-83
57% 92-69
51% 85-82
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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