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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

48-30  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 12:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

43-34  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 3.69 -- 1.0 --
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.70 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.69 ERA Ldr 2.70
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
TIGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

36.6%

Rays Cover

63.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

DET By 1-2 runs

15.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

9.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.49
DETROIT
5.86
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
181 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +39.0% more
Tampa Bay: 9.2 vs Detroit: 6.6
Hits (L5) +31.3% more
Tampa Bay: 11.1 vs Detroit: 8.5
Total Bases (L5) +22.8% more
Tampa Bay: 18.7 vs Detroit: 15.2
Walks (L5) +15.1% more
Tampa Bay: 3.7 vs Detroit: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.5 9
TB Score 5.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.1 / 8.5 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 6.6 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 18.7 / 15.2 14.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58% 95-68
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-66
64% 101-58
55% 90-73
57% 91-69
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-10
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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