KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
38-39 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
41-35 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 2.36 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Randy Vasquez | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 7.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.36 Ldr
ERA
3.60
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
PADRES
0%
ROYALS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.0%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.65
KANSAS CITY
San Diego
4.51
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
SD @ KC
19 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
SD @ KC
1 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
SD @ KC
6 - 7
Jun 22, 2025
KC @ SD
2 - 3
Jun 21, 2025
KC @ SD
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.718
OPS
▲
.925
170
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+40.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Hits (L5)
+37.9% more
San Diego: 9.4
vs
Kansas City: 6.8
OPS (Season)
+20.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Kansas City: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.7
2
SD Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.8
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.4
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 12.8
7.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
KC
SD
KC
ML
51%
85-83
55%
89-72
51%
85-82
56%
90-70
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
82-80-6
58%
90-64-7
54%
86-74-6
54%
83-70-7
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