Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Rays DET @ TB

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

48-29  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 12:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

42-34  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Dillon Dingler
STARTING PITCHER

Dillon Dingler

#13 | Catcher
@
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dillon Dingler None-None -- -- -- --
Kevin Kelly None-None 3.07 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.07
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
TIGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Tampa Bay)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

41.9%

Rays Cover

58.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

11.2%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
DETROIT
5.47
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
181 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +37.8% more
Tampa Bay: 12.7 vs Detroit: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5) +18.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.8 vs Detroit: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season) +1.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Detroit: 4.5
Batting Avg (Season) +1.7%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Detroit: 24.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.7 3
TB Score 5.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.7 / 9.2 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.3 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.4 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.5 / 18.3 19.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.9 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58% 95-68
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-66
64% 101-58
55% 90-73
57% 91-69
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-10
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 3 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 47 minutes ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 17 hours, 59 minutes ago