Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

45-31  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 7:15 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

46-30  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
@
Brandon Marsh
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Marsh

#16 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
Brandon Marsh None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Philadelphia)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

38.5%

Phillies Cover

61.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.1%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.06
NEW YORK
5.23
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +49.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.9 vs New York: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +40.8% more
Philadelphia: 15.5 vs New York: 11.0
Strikeouts (L5) +21.8% more
Philadelphia: 8.3 vs New York: 6.8
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs New York: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.1 11
PHI Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.9 / 6.6 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 7.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.8 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 11.0 10.0 / 37.0
Walks 2.3 / 5.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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