Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Padres KC @ SD

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-38  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jun 21 • 7:15 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

40-35  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.12 -- 0.1 --
Adrian Morejon None-None 2.23 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.12 Ldr ERA 2.23
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
ROYALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (San Diego)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

43.4%

Padres Cover

56.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.63
KANSAS CITY
4.29
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 SD @ KC 19 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 SD @ KC 1 - 6
Jul 17, 2026 SD @ KC 6 - 7
Jun 22, 2025 KC @ SD 2 - 3
Jun 21, 2025 KC @ SD 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.718
OPS
▲ .925
170 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +40.8% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Hits (L5) +22.8% more
San Diego: 10.1 vs Kansas City: 8.2
OPS (Season) +20.7%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.1%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Kansas City: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.6 1
SD Score 4.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.1 / 8.2 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.1 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 16.1 12.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
KC
SD
KC
ML
51% 85-83
55% 89-72
51% 85-82
56% 90-70
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
58% 90-64-7
54% 86-74-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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