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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

48-28  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, Jun 20 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

41-34  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Taylor Walls
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Walls

#6 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 3.79 -- 2.0 --
Taylor Walls None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.79 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
TIGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

57.2%

Rays Cover

42.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.4%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.0%

TB By 3-4 runs

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.33
DETROIT
4.6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
181 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.5% more
Detroit: 1.9 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +17.2% more
Detroit: 18.5 vs Tampa Bay: 15.3
Home Runs (Season) +6.6% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.3 8
TB Score 4.6 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.0 / 9.8 16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.9 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.6 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 18.5 25.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.8 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58% 95-68
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-66
64% 101-58
55% 90-73
57% 91-69
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-10
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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