NEW YORK
METSNYM
45-30 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
45-30 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 2.61 | -- | 5.0 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.61
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
8
AI Model Win Probability
METS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
METS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.92
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
4.27
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.705
OPS
▲
.724
204
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+68.7% more
New York: 6.0
vs
Philadelphia: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.8% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.4%
New York: 31.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.9
2
PHI Score
4.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 6.4
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 6.2
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 9.5
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
1.9 / 6.0
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59%
97-67
50%
79-80
49%
80-84
48%
76-83
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-66
51%
83-81
49%
78-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-76-9
51%
74-72-13
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