ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
36-37 | Road
9
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
40-33 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.58 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.65 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.58
ERA
Ldr 2.65
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
BLUE JAYS
55%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.8%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.81
ARIZONA
Toronto
5.76
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TOR @ ARI
10 - 4
Apr 18, 2026
TOR @ ARI
2 - 6
Apr 17, 2026
TOR @ ARI
3 - 6
Jun 19, 2025
ARI @ TOR
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2025
ARI @ TOR
1 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
166
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+53.0% more
Toronto: 1.2
vs
Arizona: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+49.3% more
Toronto: 15.9
vs
Arizona: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+44.8% more
Toronto: 9.9
vs
Arizona: 6.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.1% more
Toronto: 8.8
vs
Arizona: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.8
9
TOR Score
5.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.9 / 6.9
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.9
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 10.7
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ARI
TOR
ARI
ML
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
80-76-5
52%
80-73-8
45%
70-85-5
49%
73-77-9
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