ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
36-35 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
38-33 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.66 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.66
ERA
Ldr 3.82
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
BLUE JAYS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.85
ARIZONA
Toronto
5.27
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TOR @ ARI
10 - 4
Apr 18, 2026
TOR @ ARI
2 - 6
Apr 17, 2026
TOR @ ARI
3 - 6
Jun 19, 2025
ARI @ TOR
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2025
ARI @ TOR
1 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
166
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.5% more
Toronto: 4.4
vs
Arizona: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+16.8% more
Toronto: 8.1
vs
Arizona: 6.9
Home Runs (L5)
+71.2% more
Arizona: 1.5
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+17.4% more
Arizona: 12.5
vs
Toronto: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.9
4
TOR Score
5.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.9
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.5
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 7.9
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 12.5
21.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.0
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ARI
TOR
ARI
ML
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
80-76-5
52%
80-73-8
45%
70-85-5
49%
73-77-9
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