CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
36-35 | Road
8
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
46-26 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.34 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.34 Ldr
ERA
3.60
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
TIGERS
0%
REDS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.9%
DET By 1-2 runs
18.8%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.21
CINCINNATI
Detroit
4.43
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
DET @ CIN
8 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ CIN
2 - 9
Apr 24, 2026
DET @ CIN
8 - 9
Jun 15, 2025
CIN @ DET
8 - 4
Jun 14, 2025
CIN @ DET
11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.6% more
Detroit: 8.6
vs
Cincinnati: 6.3
Walks (L5)
+17.2% more
Detroit: 3.9
vs
Cincinnati: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.5% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.1%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.2
8
DET Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 10.1
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.5
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.3
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 19.2
19.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CIN
DET
CIN
ML
54%
86-73
55%
88-71
54%
87-73
49%
79-81
ATS
64%
101-58
54%
86-73
57%
91-69
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
81-73-5
46%
69-81-10
54%
83-72-5
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