Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Orioles LAA @ BAL

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

33-35  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jun 14 • 4:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

28-40  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Andrew Kittredge None-None 2.16 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.16
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
ANGELS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

35.2%

Orioles Cover

64.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

LAA By 1-2 runs

14.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.1%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.49
LOS ANGELES
5.01
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Orioles (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.679
OPS
▲ .711
154
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
Baltimore: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +42.2% more
Baltimore: 11.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.8
Home Runs (Season) +29.2% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +26.1% more
Baltimore: 13.4 vs Los Angeles: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.5 5
BAL Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.9 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 7.8 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 10.7 19.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.7 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
LAA
BAL
LAA
ML
53% 83-73
59% 96-66
57% 90-69
55% 89-73
ATS
61% 95-60-1
60% 97-65
57% 90-68-1
51% 82-80
TTL
54% 81-70-5
53% 83-74-5
51% 78-75-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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