DETROIT
TIGERSDET
43-24 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
26-38 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Baez
#28 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.09
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
ORIOLES
100%
TIGERS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.22
DETROIT
Baltimore
3.55
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
BAL @ DET
10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026
BAL @ DET
0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026
BAL @ DET
8 - 5
May 24, 2026
DET @ BAL
3 - 5
May 22, 2026
DET @ BAL
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.711
181
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.7%
Detroit: 24.1%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Detroit: 40.0%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.2
5
BAL Score
3.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.6
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.6
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 12.4
11.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.4
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
DET
BAL
DET
ML
53%
83-73
54%
86-73
57%
90-69
54%
87-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
64%
101-58
57%
90-68-1
57%
91-69
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-6
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
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