CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
40-26 | Road
8
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
38-28 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Marsh
#16 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 1.85 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brandon Marsh | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.85
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
CUBS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.33
CHICAGO
Philadelphia
4.41
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PHI @ CHC
7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026
PHI @ CHC
2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026
PHI @ CHC
4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026
PHI @ CHC
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
CHC @ PHI
11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.374
OPS
▲
.724
0
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+62.9% more
Philadelphia: 8.3
vs
Chicago: 5.1
Walks (L5)
+42.9% more
Philadelphia: 3.0
vs
Chicago: 2.1
OPS (Season)
+35.0%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.3
8
PHI Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 6.5
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 5.1
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 12.5
14.0 / 26.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.1
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CHC
PHI
CHC
ML
59%
97-67
58%
93-68
49%
80-84
51%
82-79
ATS
65%
107-57
61%
97-63-1
51%
83-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
57%
88-67-9
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-76-9
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…