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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

30-35  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

42-24  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Tena
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Tena

#8 | Designated Hitter
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Tena None-None -- -- -- --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
METS
0%
NATIONALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

26.7%

Mets Cover

73.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

WSH By 1-2 runs

12.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

6.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.2%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.86
WASHINGTON
6.35
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +270.0% more
New York: 3.3 vs Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +169.3% more
New York: 23.8 vs Washington: 8.9
Hits (L5) +106.1% more
New York: 12.2 vs Washington: 5.9
Strikeouts (L5) +14.5% more
New York: 8.5 vs Washington: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.9 4
NYM Score 6.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.2 / 5.9 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 3.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.4 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 23.8 / 8.9 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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