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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

24-38  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jun 8 • 12:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

34-30  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 4.37 -- 0.2 --
Kevin Kelly None-None 3.72 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.37 ERA Ldr 3.72
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
MARLINS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

50.7%

Rays Cover

49.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

18.5%

MIA By 3-4 runs

13.8%

TB By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.08
MIAMI
5.01
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 7, 2026 TB @ MIA 1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026 TB @ MIA 3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026 TB @ MIA 6 - 0
May 17, 2026 MIA @ TB 3 - 6
May 16, 2026 MIA @ TB 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727
OPS
▲ .728
168
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Miami: 0.7 vs Tampa Bay: 0.3
Hits (L5) +9.2% more
Miami: 9.8 vs Tampa Bay: 8.9
Walks (L5) +8.5% more
Miami: 2.1 vs Tampa Bay: 1.9
Home Runs (L5) +143.0% more
Tampa Bay: 2.3 vs Miami: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.1 2
TB Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 9.8 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.2 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 15.0 11.0 / 7.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58% 95-68
48% 78-84
58% 95-68
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 91-71
55% 90-73
54% 86-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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