Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rockies NYM @ COL

NEW YORK

METSNYM

41-24  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Jun 8 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

12-52  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Zach Agnos None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.70
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
METS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

78.2%

Rockies Cover

21.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.2%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.7%

COL By 1-2 runs

10.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.05
NEW YORK
1.93
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.1
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 NYM @ COL 2 - 6
May 6, 2026 NYM @ COL 10 - 5
May 4, 2026 NYM @ COL 4 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 COL @ NYM 3 - 1
Apr 24, 2026 COL @ NYM 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.705
OPS
▲ .739
204 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 2.0 vs Colorado: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +24.5% more
New York: 8.8 vs Colorado: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +16.0% more
New York: 17.2 vs Colorado: 14.5
Hits (L5) +14.4% more
New York: 9.8 vs Colorado: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.1 13
COL Score 1.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.8 10.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.0 0.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.8 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 17.2 17.0 / 37.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.0 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
NYM
COL
NYM
ML
60% 97-64
50% 79-80
55% 88-73
48% 76-83
ATS
60% 97-64
58% 93-66
52% 83-78
49% 78-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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