MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
23-38 | Road
11
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
34-29 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 1.73 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.59 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.73 Ldr
ERA
2.59
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
RAYS
100%
MARLINS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.08
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
4.39
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
OPS
▲
.728
168
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+35.9% more
Miami: 2.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.4
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+15.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9
vs
Miami: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.2% more
Tampa Bay: 9.4
vs
Miami: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.1
11
TB Score
4.4
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.2
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 12.5
27.0 / 20.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58%
95-68
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-71
55%
90-73
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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