BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
25-37 | Road
7
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
25-40 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 1.35 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 3.65 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.35 Ldr
ERA
3.65
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
ATHLETICS
100%
ORIOLES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.4%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.46
BALTIMORE
Athletics
4.18
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
BAL @ ATH
8 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
BAL @ ATH
5 - 3
Aug 28, 2026
BAL @ ATH
4 - 3
May 10, 2026
ATH @ BAL
1 - 2
May 9, 2026
ATH @ BAL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Athletics
ATH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.719
199
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
Baltimore: 1.5
vs
Athletics: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.4% more
Baltimore: 9.7
vs
Athletics: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+2.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
7
ATH Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 7.4
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.7
8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 14.0
10.0 / 18.0
Walks
5.0 / 1.5
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BAL
ATH
BAL
ML
59%
95-67
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
52%
84-78
61%
95-60-1
50%
81-80
57%
90-68-1
TTL
54%
84-73-5
54%
81-70-5
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-6
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