MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
23-37 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
33-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80 Ldr
ERA
2.70
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
RAYS
0%
MARLINS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.9%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.8%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.71
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
4.95
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
OPS
▲
.728
168
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+122.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3
vs
Miami: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+47.1% more
Tampa Bay: 11.0
vs
Miami: 7.5
Total Bases (L5)
+44.8% more
Tampa Bay: 13.3
vs
Miami: 9.2
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.7
3
TB Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.8
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 7.5
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 9.2
14.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.1 / 1.8
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIA
TB
MIA
ML
58%
95-68
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-71
55%
90-73
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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