Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rockies NYM @ COL

NEW YORK

METSNYM

39-24  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jun 6 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

12-50  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zach Agnos
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Agnos

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kodai Senga None-None 1.59 -- 6.0 6
Zach Agnos None-None 2.37 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.59 Ldr ERA 2.37
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
METS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

76.4%

Rockies Cover

23.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

11.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
NEW YORK
1.82
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 NYM @ COL 2 - 6
May 6, 2026 NYM @ COL 10 - 5
May 4, 2026 NYM @ COL 4 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 COL @ NYM 3 - 1
Apr 24, 2026 COL @ NYM 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.705
OPS
▲ .739
204 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +59.7% more
New York: 2.2 vs Colorado: 0.9
Walks (L5) +35.6% more
New York: 3.1 vs Colorado: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +31.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Colorado: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +21.9% more
New York: 15.8 vs Colorado: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.7 4
COL Score 1.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.1 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 9.0 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 15.8 18.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.1 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
NYM
COL
NYM
ML
60% 97-64
50% 79-80
55% 88-73
48% 76-83
ATS
60% 97-64
58% 93-66
52% 83-78
49% 78-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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