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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

38-23  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Jun 5 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

29-32  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.99 -- 0.2 1
Jake Irvin None-None 4.02 -- 5.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.99 Ldr ERA 4.02
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
CUBS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.9%

Nationals Cover

30.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.79
CHICAGO
4.7
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21000.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +457.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +114.9% more
Washington: 3.2 vs Chicago: 1.5
OPS (Season) +37.0%
Washington: 74.4% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.8 7
WSH Score 4.7 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.4 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 6.6 7.0 / 1.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 11.0 11.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.2 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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