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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

38-22  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Jun 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

28-32  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nasim Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Nasim Nunez

#26 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Boyd None-None 3.01 -- 7.1 6
Nasim Nunez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.01 ERA --
-- WHIP --
7.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
6 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
CUBS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

72.7%

Nationals Cover

27.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

12.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.96
CHICAGO
4.55
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +26.0% more
Chicago: 0.8 vs Washington: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +21000.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +457.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +119.2% more
Washington: 3.8 vs Chicago: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 7.0 0
WSH Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.7 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.8 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 14.0 8.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.8 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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