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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

29-32  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jun 4 • 7:35 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

31-29  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Junior Caminero
STARTING PITCHER

Junior Caminero

#13 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Winn None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Junior Caminero None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
RANGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

44.7%

Rays Cover

55.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

12.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.2%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.32
TEXAS
4.85
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TB @ TEX 7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026 TB @ TEX 0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026 TEX @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.713
OPS
▲ .728
183 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +126.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.8 vs Texas: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +70.3% more
Tampa Bay: 15.2 vs Texas: 8.9
Hits (L5) +30.1% more
Tampa Bay: 8.1 vs Texas: 6.3
Strikeouts (L5) +27.1% more
Tampa Bay: 9.6 vs Texas: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.3 4
TB Score 4.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.3 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.5 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 8.9 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TEX
TB
TEX
ML
58% 95-68
53% 86-76
58% 95-68
57% 91-70
ATS
60% 97-66
57% 92-70
55% 90-73
61% 98-63
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 78-70-14
51% 78-75-10
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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