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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

37-22  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Jun 3 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

28-31  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daylen Lile
STARTING PITCHER

Daylen Lile

#4 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.05 -- 1.2 1
Daylen Lile None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.05 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
CUBS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

83.3%

Nationals Cover

16.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

8.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
7.53
CHICAGO
3.66
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.9
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.374
OPS
▲ .744
0
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +26.0% more
Chicago: 8.2 vs Washington: 6.1
Home Runs (Season) +21000.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +457.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Washington: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 7.5 8
WSH Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.5 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 8.2 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 13.0 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.1 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHC
WSH
CHC
ML
57% 92-69
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
52% 81-74-6
42% 65-90-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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