VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
3-0-0 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
0-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | None-None | 4.18 | 0.818 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.01 | 0.923 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.18
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.818
Save %
Ldr 0.923
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
18.9%
VGK By 2-3 goals
23.3%
WSH By 1 goal
15.4%
WSH By 2-3 goals
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3.12
VEGAS
Washington
2.7
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
WSH @ VGK
5 - 4
Feb 27, 2026
VGK @ WSH
2 - 3
Nov 17, 2024
WSH @ VGK
5 - 2
Oct 15, 2024
VGK @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 2, 2023
WSH @ VGK
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.0%
Vegas: 51.9%
vs
Washington: 44.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+5.2%
Vegas: 21.1%
vs
Washington: 15.9%
Hits (L5)
+59.9% more
Washington: 32.9
vs
Vegas: 20.6
Takeaways (L5)
+38.5% more
Washington: 7.5
vs
Vegas: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.1
2
WSH Score
2.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 17.3
13.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
44.8 / 51.9
54.5 / 45.5
Hits
32.9 / 20.6
24.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
15.9 / 21.1
33.3 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 28.1
22.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
7.5 / 5.4
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
VGK
WSH
VGK
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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