WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
11-4-0 | Road
5
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
11-4-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Shea Theodore
#27 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.952 | -- |
| Shea Theodore | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.952
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
CAPITALS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
WSH By 1 goal
16.0%
WSH By 2-3 goals
15.4%
VGK By 1 goal
18.6%
VGK By 2-3 goals
22.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.69
WASHINGTON
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
WSH @ VGK
5 - 4
Feb 27, 2026
VGK @ WSH
2 - 3
Nov 17, 2024
WSH @ VGK
5 - 2
Oct 15, 2024
VGK @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 2, 2023
WSH @ VGK
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+101.4% more
Vegas: 5.6
vs
Washington: 2.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+23.4% more
Vegas: 32.1
vs
Washington: 26.0
Hits (L5)
+21.3% more
Vegas: 24.5
vs
Washington: 20.2
Power Play % (L5)
+9.8%
Vegas: 42.8%
vs
Washington: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.7
5
VGK Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.0 / 17.4
16.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
46.8 / 50.1
57.7 / 42.3
Hits
24.5 / 20.2
26.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
42.8 / 33.0
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
32.1 / 26.0
42.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 2.8
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
WSH
VGK
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…
Alex Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season, Ending 22-Year Cap…