VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
11-5-0 | Road
0
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
11-6-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | None-None | 2.01 | 0.920 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01
GAA
--
0.920
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
18.2%
VGK By 2-3 goals
20.7%
TOR By 1 goal
16.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3.11
VEGAS
Toronto
2.92
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
VGK @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 15, 2026
TOR @ VGK
5 - 6
Mar 5, 2025
TOR @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 20, 2024
VGK @ TOR
0 - 3
Feb 27, 2024
VGK @ TOR
6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.2% more
Vegas: 35.4
vs
Toronto: 26.8
Hits (L5)
+21.5% more
Vegas: 25.0
vs
Toronto: 19.6
Takeaways (L5)
+16.2% more
Vegas: 5.4
vs
Toronto: 4.5
Power Play % (L5)
+2.5%
Vegas: 28.6%
vs
Toronto: 26.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.1
0
TOR Score
2.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.2 / 17.3
25.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 50.5
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
19.6 / 25.0
27.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
26.1 / 28.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.8 / 35.4
26.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 5.4
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
VGK
TOR
VGK
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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