Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Bengals BAL @ CIN

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-3  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

1-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Trey Hendrickson
KEY GAME

Trey Hendrickson

#91 | Linebacker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Trey Hendrickson None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
RAVENS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Cincinnati)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

37.3%

Bengals Cover

62.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BAL By 1-6 points

14.4%

BAL By 7-13 points

11.6%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.06
BALTIMORE
23.61
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
BALTIMORE
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 BAL @ CIN 24 - 0
Nov 27, 2025 CIN @ BAL 32 - 14
Nov 7, 2024 CIN @ BAL 34 - 35
Oct 6, 2024 BAL @ CIN 41 - 38
Nov 16, 2023 CIN @ BAL 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Cincinnati: 240.0 vs Baltimore: 193.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.1% more
Baltimore: 219.8 vs Cincinnati: 116.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.2% more
Baltimore: 7.0 vs Cincinnati: 5.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Baltimore: 413.6 vs Cincinnati: 356.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 19.1 41
CIN Score 23.6 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 22.0 23.0 / 30.0
Net Passing Yards 240.0 / 193.8 371.0 / 345.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 219.8 71.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 356.4 / 413.6 442.0 / 520.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 7.0 6.8 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAL
CIN
BAL
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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