WASHINGTON
COMMANDERSWSH
4-1 | Road
23
BALTIMORE
RAVENSBAL
3-2 | Home
30
Key Game
KEY GAME
Odafe Oweh
#98 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Tavius Robinson
#95 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Odafe Oweh | None-None |
| Tavius Robinson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
RAVENS
0%
COMMANDERS
--
RAVENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
WSH By 1-6 points
16.2%
WSH By 7-13 points
14.7%
BAL By 1-6 points
16.7%
BAL By 7-13 points
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
22.14
WASHINGTON
Baltimore
23.02
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Washington
27
WASHINGTON
Baltimore
20
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Ravens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Ravens (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Commanders (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 45.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 28, 2026
WSH @ BAL
3 - 41
Aug 23, 2025
BAL @ WSH
30 - 3
Oct 13, 2024
WSH @ BAL
23 - 30
Oct 4, 2020
BAL @ WSH
31 - 17
Oct 9, 2016
WSH @ BAL
16 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+16.3% more
Baltimore: 204.9
vs
Washington: 176.2
Total Yards (L5)
+14.9% more
Baltimore: 449.1
vs
Washington: 390.7
First Downs (L5)
+14.4% more
Baltimore: 24.7
vs
Washington: 21.6
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+13.8% more
Baltimore: 244.2
vs
Washington: 214.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
22.1
23
BAL Score
23.0
30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.7 / 21.6
28.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards
244.2 / 214.5
308.0 / 253.0
Rushing Yards
204.9 / 176.2
176.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards
449.1 / 390.7
484.0 / 305.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.9 / 6.2
7.4 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
BAL
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
BAL
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +6.9
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
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