Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Bills TEN @ BUF

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

4-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jaylen Harrell
KEY GAME

Jaylen Harrell

#92 | Linebacker
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Jaylen Harrell None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
TITANS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.3
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.3 points (Buffalo)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

25.3%

Bills Cover

74.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -9.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

TEN By 1-6 points

11.2%

TEN By 7-13 points

7.8%

BUF By 1-6 points

15.6%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.13
TENNESSEE
25.43
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
27
TENNESSEE
20
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.3
D
Sim Titans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2024 TEN @ BUF 10 - 34
Sep 19, 2022 TEN @ BUF 7 - 41
Oct 18, 2021 BUF @ TEN 31 - 34
Oct 13, 2020 BUF @ TEN 16 - 42
Oct 6, 2019 BUF @ TEN 14 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +43.1% more
Buffalo: 184.7 vs Tennessee: 129.0
Total Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Buffalo: 318.8 vs Tennessee: 252.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.6% more
Buffalo: 5.4 vs Tennessee: 4.4
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
Buffalo: 19.8 vs Tennessee: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 16.1 10
BUF Score 25.4 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 16.9 18.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 184.7 / 129.0 315.0 / 200.0
Rushing Yards 134.1 / 123.2 74.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 318.8 / 252.2 389.0 / 289.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 4.4 7.2 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TEN
BUF
TEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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