Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Browns LAC @ CLE

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

4-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-6  |  Home

10
Key Game
Dalvin Tomlinson
KEY GAME

Dalvin Tomlinson

#94 | Defensive Tackle
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Dalvin Tomlinson None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
0%
📊
BROWNS
100%
CHARGERS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

59.0%

Browns Cover

41.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

17.6%

CLE By 1-6 points

15.2%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.09
LOS ANGELES
15.92
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
LOS ANGELES
24
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2024 LAC @ CLE 27 - 10
Oct 9, 2022 LAC @ CLE 30 - 28
Oct 10, 2021 CLE @ LAC 42 - 47
Oct 14, 2018 LAC @ CLE 38 - 14
Dec 3, 2017 CLE @ LAC 10 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Los Angeles: 102.7 vs Cleveland: 86.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.3% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 19.1 27
CLE Score 15.9 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 18.2 21.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 230.5 / 239.1 213.0 / 246.0
Rushing Yards 86.6 / 102.7 79.0 / 96.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 317.1 / 341.7 292.0 / 342.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.4 3.8 / 6.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
LAC
CLE
LAC
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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