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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

6-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Chop Robinson None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
DOLPHINS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Buffalo)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

21.6%

Bills Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

MIA By 1-6 points

10.0%

MIA By 7-13 points

6.6%

BUF By 1-6 points

14.7%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.92
MIAMI
24.92
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
27
MIAMI
30
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 BUF @ MIA 13 - 30
Sep 18, 2025 MIA @ BUF 21 - 31
Nov 3, 2024 MIA @ BUF 27 - 30
Sep 12, 2024 BUF @ MIA 31 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 BUF @ MIA 21 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +34.3% more
Buffalo: 245.8 vs Miami: 183.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.2% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Miami: 5.1
First Downs (L5) +15.7% more
Buffalo: 22.5 vs Miami: 19.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Buffalo: 376.5 vs Miami: 332.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 13.9 27
BUF Score 24.9 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 19.4 24.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 245.8 / 183.0 231.0 / 224.0
Rushing Yards 130.7 / 149.7 94.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 376.5 / 332.7 325.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.1 5.5 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MIA
BUF
MIA
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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