Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Ravens DEN @ BAL

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

5-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

5-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
Nate Wiggins
KEY GAME

Nate Wiggins

#2 | Cornerback
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
Nate Wiggins None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
BRONCOS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Baltimore)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

30.4%

Ravens Cover

69.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

DEN By 1-6 points

12.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

9.5%

BAL By 1-6 points

16.4%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.45
DENVER
30.62
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
27
DENVER
20
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2024 DEN @ BAL 10 - 41
Dec 4, 2022 DEN @ BAL 9 - 10
Oct 3, 2021 BAL @ DEN 23 - 7
Sep 23, 2018 DEN @ BAL 14 - 27
Sep 13, 2015 BAL @ DEN 13 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.8% more
Baltimore: 182.3 vs Denver: 132.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +32.7% more
Baltimore: 7.3 vs Denver: 5.5
Total Yards (L5) +28.6% more
Baltimore: 446.7 vs Denver: 347.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Baltimore: 264.3 vs Denver: 215.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 23.5 10
BAL Score 30.6 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 19.8 25.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 264.3 / 215.1 269.0 / 197.0
Rushing Yards 182.3 / 132.3 127.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 446.7 / 347.4 396.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 7.3 / 5.5 7.3 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
DEN
BAL
DEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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