BUFFALO
BILLSBUF
7-2 | Road
30
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
4-5 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tyler Bass
#16 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Rigoberto Sanchez
#8 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tyler Bass | None-None |
| Rigoberto Sanchez | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
COLTS
100%
BILLS
--
COLTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1-6 points
16.8%
BUF By 7-13 points
16.6%
IND By 1-6 points
15.9%
IND By 7-13 points
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
26.99
BUFFALO
Indianapolis
25.33
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
20
BUFFALO
Indianapolis
31
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bills
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colts
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bills (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Colts (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 52.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 10, 2024
BUF @ IND
30 - 20
Nov 21, 2021
IND @ BUF
41 - 15
Jan 9, 2021
IND @ BUF
24 - 27
Oct 21, 2018
BUF @ IND
5 - 37
Dec 10, 2017
IND @ BUF
7 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+29.2% more
Buffalo: 240.8
vs
Indianapolis: 170.5
First Downs (L5)
+27.9% more
Buffalo: 23.0
vs
Indianapolis: 16.6
Total Yards (L5)
+20.7% more
Buffalo: 359.3
vs
Indianapolis: 285.0
Yards Per Play (L5)
+17.2% more
Buffalo: 5.9
vs
Indianapolis: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
27.0
30
IND Score
25.3
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.6 / 23.0
19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards
170.5 / 240.8
240.0 / 280.0
Rushing Yards
114.5 / 118.5
121.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.36 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards
285.0 / 359.3
361.0 / 415.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 0.6
4.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
4.9 / 5.9
5.9 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
IND
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
IND
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +8.8
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
BUF
IND
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
Bills' DJ Moore Misses Practice with Shoulder Injury, Week 5 Sta…
Disney+ To Stream Super Bowl LXI In 2027: A Sign Of A Future Pay…
Colorado Buffaloes' NFL Draft Hopes Dim for Five Players Amid Th…
Rams Poised for Winning Streak After Bills Clash, Schedule Offer…
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…