Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Saints ATL @ NO

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-7  |  Home

20
Key Game
Zach Harrison
KEY GAME

Zach Harrison

#96 | Defensive End
@
Carl Granderson
KEY GAME

Carl Granderson

#96 | Defensive End
Player
Zach Harrison None-None
Carl Granderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
FALCONS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (New Orleans)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

32.0%

Saints Cover

68.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

ATL By 1-6 points

13.2%

ATL By 7-13 points

10.0%

NO By 1-6 points

16.6%

NO By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.43
ATLANTA
25.98
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 ATL @ NO 45 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 NO @ ATL 17 - 19
Nov 23, 2025 ATL @ NO 24 - 10
Nov 10, 2024 ATL @ NO 17 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 NO @ ATL 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.5% more
New Orleans: 134.3 vs Atlanta: 122.6
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Atlanta: 1.1 vs New Orleans: 0.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.0% more
Atlanta: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 5.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4 vs New Orleans: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 19.4 17
NO Score 26.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 19.9 14.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 218.7 / 243.3 269.0 / 287.0
Rushing Yards 134.3 / 122.6 96.0 / 181.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 353.0 / 365.9 365.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.9 7.0 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ATL
NO
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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