Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Eagles WSH @ PHI

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

7-3  |  Road

18
FINAL
Thu, Nov 14 • 8:15 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

7-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
COMMANDERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Philadelphia)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

46.6%

Eagles Cover

53.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-6 points

16.0%

WSH By 7-13 points

14.4%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.7%

PHI By 7-13 points

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.74
WASHINGTON
26.95
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
30
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.0% more
Philadelphia: 191.1 vs Washington: 125.8
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Philadelphia: 376.1 vs Washington: 344.6
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.6 vs Washington: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 25.7 18
PHI Score 27.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 21.0 23.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 184.9 / 218.8 206.0 / 171.0
Rushing Yards 191.1 / 125.8 228.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 376.1 / 344.6 434.0 / 264.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.5 6.2 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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