NEW YORK
METSNYM
89-73 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
95-67 | Home
7
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
METS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.31
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5.49
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.705
OPS
▲
.724
204
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+52.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.9
vs
New York: 8.4
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4
vs
New York: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+19.1% more
Philadelphia: 11.4
vs
New York: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.3
6
PHI Score
5.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.4
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.5
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 8.4
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 9.6
18.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59%
97-67
50%
79-80
49%
80-84
48%
76-83
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-66
51%
83-81
49%
78-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-76-9
51%
74-72-13
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