PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
95-67 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
89-73 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
METS
100%
PHILLIES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.8%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.36
PHILADELPHIA
New York
4.57
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724
▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
New York: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.8% more
Philadelphia: 10.8
vs
New York: 8.8
Walks (L5)
+13.6% more
Philadelphia: 3.6
vs
New York: 3.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.4
1
NYM Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 6.9
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.8
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 10.7
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.6
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
79-80
59%
97-67
48%
76-83
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-66
65%
107-57
49%
78-81
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
57%
88-67-9
51%
74-72-13
51%
78-76-9
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