Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Thunder HOU @ OKC

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

17-8  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Dec 14 • 8:30 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

19-5  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
ROCKETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Oklahoma City)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

33.4%

Thunder Cover

66.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

HOU By 1-7 points

19.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

8.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.12
HOUSTON
117.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
HOUSTON
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 HOU @ OKC 112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026 OKC @ HOU 111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025 HOU @ OKC 124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025 OKC @ HOU 111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 HOU @ OKC 128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +71.6% more
Oklahoma City: 13.3 vs Houston: 7.8
Assists (L5) +29.6% more
Oklahoma City: 28.1 vs Houston: 21.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Oklahoma City: 37.2% vs Houston: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Oklahoma City: 48.1% vs Houston: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 113.1 96
OKC Score 117.4 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 29.7 36.7 / 23.9
Assists 28.1 / 21.7 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 44.6 45.0 / 36.5
Free Throw % 82.7 / 83.1 87.5 / 60.0
Rebounding 47.9 / 44.8 43.0 / 49.0
Steals 13.3 / 7.8 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 14.5 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
HOU
OKC
HOU
ML
70% 80-34
61% 69-44
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 70-43
48% 46-49
59% 51-35
TTL
67% 76-38
51% 58-55
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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